The deadline passed on 5 October 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Francis James Allison Oyague at 6%, followed by Rafael López Aliaga at 6%.
Rafael López Aliaga moved the most this week: 72% to 6% (−65.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis James Allison Oyague | 6% | +1.8 pts | +4.1 pts | $5k |
| Rafael López Aliaga | 6% | −3.1 pts | −65.5 pts | $18k |
A price of 6% means traders pay about $0.06 for a “Francis James Allison Oyague” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Rafael López Aliaga · No | $30k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Francis James Allison Oyague · No | $30k | – |
| pkz | Rafael López Aliaga · No | $4k | +$4k |
| 0xe573…0a38 | Francis James Allison Oyague · No | $4k | −$111 |
| anqana | Rafael López Aliaga · No | $4k | +$3k |
| anoin123 | Rafael López Aliaga · No | $4k | +$3k |
| Chornerito | Rafael López Aliaga · No | $2k | +$2k |
| AZwater | Francis James Allison Oyague · No | $2k | −$87 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.