As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Cuban regime falls in 2026”, down from 8% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 10% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +0.1 pts | −4.8 pts | $21k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid22 | No | $14k | +$971 |
| SirHarryOakes | No | $13k | +$1k |
| Imbafer | No | $9k | +$3k |
| MEPP | No | $6k | +$1k |
| e88888 | No | $5k | +$1k |
| 4751346 | No | $3k | +$334 |
| QMG-CORE | No | $3k | +$290 |
| StarMaster | No | $3k | +$119 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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