As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026”, down from 4% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.3 pts | −1.8 pts | $27k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pershin | No | $44k | +$5k |
| elmcap2 | No | $41k | +$3k |
| insidero | No | $16k | +$818 |
| bear-bees | No | $9k | +$294 |
| MajoriT | No | $8k | +$1k |
| Noooooooop | No | $6k | +$257 |
| Car | No | $6k | +$135 |
| Talophex | No | $5k | +$25 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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