As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 1% chance for “Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026”, down from 2% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | +0.1 pts | −0.8 pts | $13k |
A price of 1% means traders pay about $0.01 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| keribit | No | $34k | +$1k |
| occasionalAwareness | No | $27k | +$2k |
| 0x9507…7b04 | No | $21k | +$2k |
| 0x8931…a90c | No | $8k | +$151 |
| 0x919d…60e1 | No | $5k | +$385 |
| gipsplug | No | $5k | +$432 |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | $5k | +$282 |
| End123 | No | $5k | +$382 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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