As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027”, down from 4% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −0.2 pts | −1.9 pts | $739k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
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| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | $879k | +$42k |
| denizz | No | $488k | +$65k |
| Erasmus. | No | $278k | +$66k |
| aff3 | No | $250k | +$10k |
| TeamA | No | $184k | +$34k |
| GoriIIa | No | $165k | +$3k |
| afdafdafdafdafd | No | $132k | +$10k |
| shibagege | No | $125k | +$9k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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