As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 1% chance for “Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026”, down from 2% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | −0.3 pts | −0.6 pts | $13k |
A price of 1% means traders pay about $0.01 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| de5nuts | No | $34k | +$4k |
| forinnerpsandr1x11222 | No | $29k | +$3k |
| Magamyman | No | $28k | +$4k |
| 0x8b71…8044 | No | $20k | +$952 |
| 0x333e…369b | No | $14k | +$2k |
| keribit | No | $12k | +$172 |
| 4751346 | No | $12k | +$891 |
| Hyperlong | No | $11k | +$779 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.