As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31”, down from 3% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.2 pts | −0.9 pts | $96k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| denizz | No | $159k | +$20k |
| keribit | No | $64k | +$3k |
| pIebe | No | $53k | +$2k |
| kevtp | No | $39k | +$2k |
| 0xb121…b73c | No | $23k | +$1k |
| MEPP | No | $20k | +$792 |
| risk-manager | No | $19k | +$658 |
| Outsid3rTrading | No | $12k | +$494 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.