As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 6% chance for “Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027”, down from 9% a week ago.
It moved −0.9 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 11% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | −0.9 pts | −2.7 pts | $8k |
A price of 6% means traders pay about $0.06 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEPP | No | $13k | +$1k |
| alwaysOn | No | $13k | +$1k |
| Valen9 | No | $12k | +$689 |
| agagyu | No | $11k | +$705 |
| denizz | No | $4k | +$283 |
| pIebe | No | $4k | +$202 |
| delphy | No | $3k | +$149 |
| 0xa9f3…4bce | No | $3k | +$67 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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