As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 20% by 30 November and 34% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 56% to 34% (−22.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 20% | +2.0 pts | −5.5 pts | $6k |
| 31 December 2027 | 34% | 0.0 pts | −22.5 pts | $2k |
A price of 34% means traders pay about $0.34 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johndorito | November 30 · No | $2k | −$6 |
| clazzy1 | November 30 · No | $1k | +$222 |
| geowatch | November 30 · No | $877 | −$123 |
| MrMelonHead | November 30 · No | $802 | +$2 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.