As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 12% chance for “Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31”, down from 26% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 30% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 0.0 pts | −14.0 pts | $89k |
A price of 12% means traders pay about $0.12 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | No | $20k | +$2k |
| carlos484 | No | $8k | −$95 |
| mathrex | No | $7k | +$537 |
| 18in36out | No | $4k | +$4 |
| Jest55 | No | $2k | +$340 |
| nonkenny90 | No | $2k | +$39 |
| browne | Yes | $2k | −$786 |
| als255 | Yes | $2k | −$612 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.