As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are ↑ $4.25 at 10%, ↑ $4.30 at 6% and ↓ $3.85 at 76%.
↑ $4.40 moved the most this week: 50% to 4% (−46.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4.25 | 10% | −5.0 pts | −40.5 pts | $4k |
| ↑ $4.30 | 6% | −5.5 pts | −44.0 pts | $5k |
| ↑ $4.40 | 4% | 0.0 pts | −46.3 pts | $7k |
| ↓ $3.85 | 76% | +15.0 pts | +25.5 pts | $3k |
| ↓ $3.95 | 94% | −0.3 pts | +43.7 pts | $5k |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for a “↓ $3.95” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpheo | ↑ $4.40 · No | $2k | +$28 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.