As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 4% by 30 November and 16% by 31 December.
The 30 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 14% to 4% (−9.7 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 4% | +0.1 pts | −9.7 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2026 | 16% | +0.5 pts | −7.5 pts | $0 |
A price of 16% means traders pay about $0.16 for the 31 December 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x809d…c03d | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | +$18 |
| MaxEnt | November 30, 2026 · No | $722 | +$57 |
| MaxEnt | December 31, 2026 · No | $505 | +$5 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.