As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 43% chance for “Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026”, down from 44% a week ago.
It moved −1.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 36% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43% | −1.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $15k |
A price of 43% means traders pay about $0.43 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venimous | Yes | $14k | +$3k |
| DegenerateJanet | No | $8k | −$1k |
| i400 | No | $4k | −$2k |
| 0x36da…907b | No | $969 | −$131 |
| 0xd056…f1be | No | $665 | −$62 |
| powwy | No | $656 | +$38 |
| TestingMyGangster | No | $590 | +$72 |
| troim | No | $570 | −$54 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.