As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 17% by 30 November, 22% by 31 December and 26% by 31 January 2027.
The 31 January 2027 line moved the most this week: 53% to 26% (−27.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 17% | +4.5 pts | −11.5 pts | $26k |
| 31 December 2026 | 22% | +1.0 pts | −14.5 pts | $20k |
| 31 January 2027 | 26% | −18.0 pts | −27.5 pts | $8k |
A price of 26% means traders pay about $0.26 for the 31 January 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| M2sx92kljs42 | November 30, 2026 · No | $2k | +$54 |
| 0x0bef…3b06 | November 30, 2026 · No | $1k | −$42 |
| pakukudolphi | November 30, 2026 · Yes | $928 | +$23 |
| M2sx92kljs42 | January 31, 2027 · No | $805 | +$299 |
| PavtheGreat | November 30, 2026 · No | $803 | +$103 |
| 0x8314…0b88 | November 30, 2026 · No | $672 | +$84 |
| kanhaoleaha | December 31, 2026 · No | $655 | +$148 |
| snipgoblin | November 30, 2026 · No | $544 | +$98 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.