As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 49.0 to 51.9 at 41%, followed by 52.0 to 54.9 at 29% and 46.0 to 48.9 at 10%.
43.0 to 45.9 moved the most this week: 34% to 1% (−33.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.0 to 51.9 | 41% | −14.8 pts | +25.8 pts | $4k |
| 52.0 to 54.9 | 29% | +17.6 pts | +27.5 pts | $850 |
| 46.0 to 48.9 | 10% | −1.5 pts | −27.0 pts | $20k |
| 55.0+ | 4% | 0.0 pts | +1.1 pts | $147 |
| 43.0 to 45.9 | 1% | 0.0 pts | −33.1 pts | $2k |
A price of 41% means traders pay about $0.41 for a “49.0 to 51.9” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 43.0 to 45.9 · No | $824 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 55.0+ · No | $799 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 46.0 to 48.9 · No | $748 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 52.0 to 54.9 · No | $593 | – |
| SnapElectionAvoider | 46.0 to 48.9 · No | $532 | +$262 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.