As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026”, unchanged from a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +0.2 pts | +0.2 pts | $3k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| aannggg | No | $47k | +$2k |
| budu100 | No | $34k | +$2k |
| Aq4ExePrd22Jn | No | $19k | +$701 |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5M | No | $17k | +$487 |
| OiOiOiCxxtCxxtCxxt | No | $12k | +$439 |
| ElectricSamurai | No | $11k | +$653 |
| fqy2026 | No | $10k | +$561 |
| QMG-CORE | No | $9k | +$491 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.