As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “China x Japan military clash before 2027”, down from 3% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.4 pts | −1.2 pts | $29k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| momom | No | $63k | +$4k |
| Trashbag | No | $40k | +$3k |
| i400 | No | $35k | +$2k |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | $27k | +$1k |
| xcnstrategy | No | $27k | +$3k |
| onekey02 | No | $23k | +$1k |
| -0- | No | $16k | +$869 |
| elmcap2 | No | $14k | +$740 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.