As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “China x Taiwan military clash before 2027”, down from 4% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 0.0 pts | −1.3 pts | $20k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4004…c40b | No | $120k | +$12k |
| Whitelied91 | No | $97k | +$4k |
| -0- | No | $56k | +$8k |
| 247525 | No | $46k | +$2k |
| po18503 | No | $26k | +$4k |
| LBZone | No | $22k | +$2k |
| moneychen003 | No | $21k | +$760 |
| 0xdc21…0726 | No | $21k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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