As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 72% chance for “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31”, down from 75% a week ago.
It moved +1.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 68% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 72% | +1.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $5k |
A price of 72% means traders pay about $0.72 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus- | Yes | $3k | +$348 |
| KimchiCapital | Yes | $2k | −$198 |
| cripes3 | No | $2k | −$3k |
| 0x46a1…2736 | Yes | $903 | +$32 |
| cassino | Yes | $877 | +$147 |
| tupac8 | Yes | $680 | +$314 |
| Herve34 | No | $624 | −$513 |
| canchoo | Yes | $603 | +$397 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.