The favourite on Polymarket is ↓ 70,000 at 50%, followed by ↑ 90,000 at 24% and ↓ 55,000 at 10%.
↑ 90,000 moved the most this week: 28% to 24% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 70,000 | 50% | −3.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $286k |
| ↑ 90,000 | 24% | 0.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $171k |
| ↓ 55,000 | 10% | −1.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $291k |
| ↓ 50,000 | 6% | −2.0 pts | −3.0 pts | $247k |
| ↓ 45,000 | 3% | −1.8 pts | −1.2 pts | $256k |
A price of 10% means traders pay $0.10 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| JnStPrdctns | ↓ 70,000 · No | $131k | +$44k |
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | ↓ 70,000 · No | $110k | +$20k |
| floatingraft | ↑ 90,000 · No | $73k | +$132k |
| boyau | ↓ 70,000 · Yes | $66k | +$15k |
| Tokor | ↓ 70,000 · Yes | $65k | −$205 |
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | ↓ 55,000 · No | $45k | +$187k |
| greater-fools | ↓ 70,000 · Yes | $44k | +$10k |
| max1ved | ↓ 70,000 · Yes | $41k | +$11k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.