As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Lisa Blunt Rochester at 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand at 4% and Raphael Warnock at 4%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Alex Padilla moved the most this week: 8% to 2% (−5.7 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 4% | 0.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $1k |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 4% | 0.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $1k |
| Raphael Warnock | 4% | +0.1 pts | −3.2 pts | $568 |
| Alex Padilla | 2% | −0.1 pts | −5.7 pts | $5k |
| Josh Hawley | 1% | 0.0 pts | −4.2 pts | $2k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a “Lisa Blunt Rochester” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pantomime | Lisa Blunt Rochester · No | $666 | +$7 |
| pantomime | Alex Padilla · No | $666 | +$10 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.