As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026”, down from 3% a week ago.
It moved +0.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 5% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +0.5 pts | −0.8 pts | $284k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| VelvetNova27 | No | $1.0M | +$202k |
| TahitiBob | No | $1.0M | +$119k |
| KatsuManager87 | No | $790k | +$108k |
| blahblah344 | No | $534k | +$91k |
| yuahldj | No | $297k | +$18k |
| 1916JConnolly | No | $162k | +$28k |
| BearKingdom | No | $157k | +$66k |
| 0x0d50…aec0 | No | $127k | +$77k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.