As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 1 at 90%, followed by 2 at 10%.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 90% | −0.5 pts | +1.5 pts | $19k |
| 2 | 10% | +0.5 pts | +1.0 pts | $7k |
A price of 90% means traders pay about $0.90 for a “1” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2 · No | $149k | – |
| russell110320 | 1 · Yes | $74k | +$26k |
| flawfence | 1 · Yes | $39k | +$23k |
| balerinacapuchina | 1 · Yes | $32k | +$4k |
| SS123 | 1 · Yes | $23k | +$15k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1 · No | $16k | – |
| gopfan2 | 1 · Yes | $14k | +$12k |
| gopfan2 | 2 · Yes | $9k | −$19k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.