As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Over 2.5 at 67%, followed by 2.25–2.5 at 32% and 2.0–2.25 at 3%.
2.25–2.5 moved the most this week: 24% to 32% (+7.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 67% | −2.5 pts | −5.0 pts | $7k |
| 2.25–2.5 | 32% | +4.5 pts | +7.5 pts | $8k |
| 2.0–2.25 | 3% | +0.2 pts | +1.2 pts | $570 |
A price of 67% means traders pay about $0.67 for a “Over 2.5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.0–2.25 · No | $7k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.25–2.5 · No | $5k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Over 2.5 · No | $2k | – |
| 0x34db…1b63 | 2.25–2.5 · Yes | $2k | +$501 |
| 0x4cfd…bef3 | Over 2.5 · Yes | $1k | +$39 |
| bonalddrunk | Over 2.5 · Yes | $1k | −$19 |
| Drku | Over 2.5 · Yes | $1k | +$21 |
| 0x8314…0b88 | Over 2.5 · Yes | $781 | −$55 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.