As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 3% by 12 November, 56% by 15 November and 96% by 30 November.
The 12 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 42% to 3% (−39.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 November 2026 | 3% | +1.0 pts | −39.3 pts | $5k |
| 15 November 2026 | 56% | +51.2 pts | −25.3 pts | $12k |
| 30 November 2026 | 96% | +7.7 pts | +0.1 pts | $3k |
A price of 96% means traders pay about $0.96 for the 30 November 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| nonkenny90 | November 15 · No | $940 | −$957 |
| 0xecb1…f1c4 | November 12 · No | $901 | +$7 |
| 0xecb1…f1c4 | November 15 · Yes | $703 | +$552 |
| Jydyjyd | November 15 · Yes | $671 | +$445 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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