As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 91% by 30 November and 85% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 53% to 85% (+32.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 91% | +0.5 pts | +7.5 pts | $28k |
| 31 December 2027 | 85% | +0.5 pts | +32.0 pts | $8k |
A price of 91% means traders pay about $0.91 for the 30 November 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| yen4u | November 30 · Yes | $7k | +$945 |
| browne | November 30 · Yes | $5k | +$40 |
| GOLADS96 | November 30 · Yes | $3k | +$787 |
| tr1000 | November 30 · Yes | $3k | +$240 |
| pIebe | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$321 |
| Udonsan | November 30 · Yes | $2k | +$59 |
| pIebe | November 30 · Yes | $2k | +$51 |
| paddaa | November 30 · No | $1k | −$115 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.