As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “US recession by end of 2026”, down from 6% a week ago.
It moved −0.7 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 6% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −0.7 pts | −1.7 pts | $19k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | No | $39k | +$4k |
| pmcb | No | $25k | +$4k |
| MaxPowell | No | $24k | +$4k |
| baran-ludoman | No | $23k | +$4k |
| allen111 | No | $23k | +$7k |
| 0x5b91…2709 | No | $22k | +$2k |
| TBill1 | No | $21k | +$1k |
| mazw8 | No | $20k | +$4k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Finance · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.