As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 83%, followed by Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 15%.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) moved the most this week: 95% to 83% (−12.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 83% | +1.6 pts | −12.8 pts | $3k |
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 15% | −2.8 pts | +12.4 pts | $4k |
A price of 83% means traders pay about $0.83 for a “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) · No | $6k | – |
| Underdarkus | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) · Yes | $3k | −$348 |
| 0x8314…0b88 | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) · Yes | $2k | +$15 |
| perfectnostalgia | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) · Yes | $2k | +$624 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) · No | $1k | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Finance · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.