As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 36% by 30 November and 40% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 55% to 40% (−14.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 36% | +11.5 pts | −5.5 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 40% | −12.0 pts | −14.0 pts | $491 |
A price of 40% means traders pay about $0.40 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | December 31 · No | $3k | +$693 |
| ppxtu | December 31 · Yes | $3k | −$974 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | December 31 · No | $1k | +$505 |
| scorp0212 | December 31 · No | $895 | +$242 |
| vino1234 | December 31 · No | $678 | +$231 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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