As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 8% by 15 November, 60% by 30 November and 79% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 94% to 79% (−15.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 November 2026 | 8% | +1.0 pts | +2.5 pts | $11k |
| 30 November 2026 | 60% | +9.0 pts | −9.0 pts | $12k |
| 31 December 2027 | 79% | +0.6 pts | −15.4 pts | $15k |
A price of 79% means traders pay about $0.79 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | November 15 · No | $11k | +$123 |
| smellyEllie | December 31 · Yes | $5k | −$723 |
| smellyEllie | November 15 · No | $3k | +$121 |
| pIebe | December 31 · Yes | $2k | −$248 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | November 15 · No | $1k | −$13 |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | December 31 · Yes | $1k | −$179 |
| nonkenny90 | November 15 · No | $1k | −$38 |
| smellyEllie | November 30 · Yes | $924 | +$114 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.