As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 9% by 31 December, 18% by 31 January 2027, 54% by 30 June 2027 and 66% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 January 2027 line moved the most this week: 26% to 18% (−8.5 pts).
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 9% | −0.5 pts | −7.5 pts | $12k |
| 31 January 2027 | 18% | 0.0 pts | −8.5 pts | $330 |
| 28 February 2027 | 34% | 0.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $0 |
| 30 June 2027 | 54% | 0.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $4k |
| 31 December 2027 | 66% | −2.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $6k |
A price of 66% means traders pay about $0.66 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MaxEnt | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$675 |
| linsen | June 30, 2027 · No | $6k | +$400 |
| Stonktrader | June 30, 2027 · Yes | $5k | −$459 |
| rkreddyzoomin | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$908 |
| Folletin | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$882 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $4k | −$39 |
| Utoya | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$614 |
| DerDon | June 30, 2027 · No | $3k | −$196 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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