As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 25 bps increase at 60%, followed by No change at 36% and 50+ bps increase at 5%.
No change moved the most this week: 24% to 36% (+12.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 60% | −2.0 pts | −11.5 pts | $0 |
| No change | 36% | −0.5 pts | +12.0 pts | $0 |
| 50+ bps increase | 5% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $219 |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | 0.0 pts | −0.7 pts | $0 |
A price of 60% means traders pay about $0.60 for a “25 bps increase” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25 bps decrease · No | $3k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 50+ bps increase · No | $3k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No change · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25 bps increase · No | $1k | – |
| bufogodis | 25 bps increase · Yes | $706 | −$94 |
| firegold | 25 bps increase · Yes | $595 | −$109 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.