As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 0.3% at 44%, followed by 0.2% at 40% and 0.4% at 8%.
0.2% moved the most this week: 26% to 40% (+13.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3% | 44% | +0.5 pts | −1.5 pts | $1k |
| 0.2% | 40% | +4.5 pts | +13.5 pts | $2k |
| 0.4% | 8% | 0.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $2k |
| ≤0.1% | 6% | −0.5 pts | −4.0 pts | $3k |
| 0.5% | 2% | −1.8 pts | −5.0 pts | $0 |
A price of 44% means traders pay about $0.44 for a “0.3%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17735977 | ≤0.1% · No | $4k | +$346 |
| 17735977 | 0.3% · Yes | $2k | +$238 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.5% · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | ≤0.1% · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.4% · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.2% · No | $858 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.3% · No | $808 | – |
| Gaditima | 0.3% · No | $549 | −$81 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.