As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 3.7% at 88%, followed by 3.8% at 4% and 3.6% at 4%.
3.6% moved the most this week: 1% to 4% (+2.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7% | 88% | +0.5 pts | −2.0 pts | $8k |
| 3.8% | 4% | −0.4 pts | −0.1 pts | $4k |
| 3.6% | 4% | 0.0 pts | +2.6 pts | $0 |
| 3.9% | 1% | −0.4 pts | −0.4 pts | $2k |
A price of 88% means traders pay about $0.88 for a “3.7%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3.9% · No | $4k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3.6% · No | $4k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3.8% · No | $4k | – |
| 17735977 | 3.7% · Yes | $3k | +$41 |
| 7418399 | 3.7% · Yes | $1k | +$92 |
| Stonktrader | 3.9% · No | $752 | +$65 |
| nj23adsknml3 | 3.7% · Yes | $620 | +$3 |
| ATJackk | 3.7% · Yes | $531 | +$16 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.