As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026”, down from 5% a week ago.
It moved −0.8 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −0.8 pts | −2.2 pts | $53k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
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| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr | No | $36k | +$886 |
| QMG-CORE | No | $20k | +$413 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | $15k | +$330 |
| AngryRhino | No | $15k | +$33 |
| 0xef97…ab2c | No | $12k | +$388 |
| QMG-SCALAR | No | $10k | +$311 |
| bearbees2 | No | $10k | +$384 |
| 53534 | No | $7k | +$94 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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