As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 16% chance for “Kash Patel out by December 31”, down from 18% a week ago.
It moved −6.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 19% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | −6.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $30k |
A price of 16% means traders pay about $0.16 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| yen4u | No | $13k | +$1k |
| Serega-pro | No | $10k | +$6k |
| cikcikcik | No | $7k | +$3k |
| ethBELIVER | No | $4k | +$3k |
| 0xaa2b…5b75 | No | $4k | +$333 |
| jidho | No | $3k | +$1k |
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | $3k | −$6k |
| Noname333 | No | $2k | +$190 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Politics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.