The favourite on Polymarket is Pete Hegseth at 33%, followed by Kash Patel at 22% and Marco Rubio at 14%.
Stephen Miller moved the most this week: 12% to 4% (−8.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 33% | −9.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $126k |
| Kash Patel | 22% | +4.5 pts | +4.5 pts | $22k |
| Marco Rubio | 14% | −1.0 pts | +5.0 pts | $177k |
| Scott Bessent | 10% | +5.0 pts | +0.5 pts | $59k |
| Stephen Miller | 4% | −15.5 pts | −8.0 pts | $41k |
A price of 14% means traders pay $0.14 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| todouzai | Pete Hegseth · Yes | $7k | −$240 |
| paddaa | Pete Hegseth · No | $5k | +$3k |
| macrosteaks | Pete Hegseth · Yes | $5k | −$2k |
| Peterxam | Scott Bessent · Yes | $3k | +$337 |
| defillama7 | Pete Hegseth · No | $3k | +$3k |
| cowcat | Pete Hegseth · Yes | $3k | +$145 |
| notssf3 | Pete Hegseth · Yes | $3k | +$849 |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | Marco Rubio · No | $2k | +$10k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.