The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 72%, followed by November 30 at 36%.
December 31 moved the most this week: 63% to 72% (+8.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 72% | +10.0 pts | +8.5 pts | $69k |
| November 30 | 36% | +6.0 pts | +1.5 pts | $86k |
A price of 36% means traders pay $0.35 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bertapotamous | November 30 · No | $11k | +$2k |
| Parz1vaI | November 30 · No | $9k | +$7k |
| Parz1vaI | December 31 · No | $7k | −$4k |
| Jest55 | November 30 · Yes | $5k | −$2k |
| Jest55 | December 31 · Yes | $4k | −$162 |
| peterfromfamilyguy | December 31 · No | $3k | −$2k |
| 080526 | November 30 · Yes | $3k | −$2k |
| stevemarks2330 | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$236 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.