As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is ≤1.9% at 83%, followed by 2.0-2.4% at 16%.
2.0-2.4% moved the most this week: 32% to 16% (−16.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1.9% | 83% | +21.5 pts | +15.0 pts | $4k |
| 2.0-2.4% | 16% | −22.1 pts | −16.8 pts | $3k |
A price of 83% means traders pay about $0.83 for a “≤1.9%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.0-2.4% · No | $6k | – |
| 0x8314…0b88 | ≤1.9% · Yes | $2k | +$365 |
| 0x5ecd…0787 | ≤1.9% · Yes | $2k | +$699 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | ≤1.9% · No | $1k | – |
| jikolep | 2.0-2.4% · Yes | $901 | −$168 |
| RayGuy | ≤1.9% · Yes | $821 | +$210 |
| spacegliderr | ≤1.9% · Yes | $795 | +$527 |
| FrozenParasite | ≤1.9% · Yes | $558 | +$194 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Finance · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.