As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Iran Nuke before 2027”, down from 4% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −0.4 pts | −0.8 pts | $116k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEPP | No | $81k | +$12k |
| TronOG | No | $28k | +$1k |
| 0x9507…7b04 | No | $27k | +$3k |
| iraa3 | No | $24k | +$265 |
| 0xef97…ab2c | No | $19k | +$220 |
| zb8 | No | $19k | +$528 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | $16k | +$386 |
| QMG-CORE | No | $15k | +$219 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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