As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 16% chance for “IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31”, up from 12% a week ago.
It moved −0.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 14% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | −0.5 pts | +3.0 pts | $15k |
A price of 16% means traders pay about $0.16 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| nope3050 | No | $5k | −$112 |
| RememberAmalek | No | $4k | +$690 |
| enrico-vasaio | No | $3k | +$58 |
| hopedieslast | No | $2k | +$29 |
| AlfaFire | No | $2k | −$158 |
| Valen9 | Yes | $2k | −$682 |
| Mr-Krabs | No | $2k | −$55 |
| RdogTest | No | $1k | +$13 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.