As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are 5.3% at 20%, 5.4% at 8% and 5.5% at 5%.
5.4% moved the most this week: 22% to 8% (−14.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | 20% | −12.5 pts | −9.5 pts | $1k |
| 5.4% | 8% | +1.0 pts | −14.0 pts | $4k |
| 5.5% | 5% | 0.0 pts | −4.6 pts | $13k |
| 5.7% | 4% | −0.1 pts | −0.7 pts | $0 |
| 6.0% | 2% | 0.0 pts | −1.4 pts | $2k |
A price of 20% means traders pay about $0.20 for a “5.3%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 5.5% · No | $20k | +$3k |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | 6.0% · No | $9k | +$226 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | 5.7% · No | $8k | +$76 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | 5.4% · No | $7k | +$1k |
| 0xe617…f251 | 6.0% · No | $5k | +$302 |
| 0xe617…f251 | 5.5% · No | $3k | +$88 |
| AdjunctBias | 5.5% · No | $2k | +$27 |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | 5.7% · No | $2k | +$619 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.