As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 8% by 15 November, 21% by 30 November and 26% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 36% to 26% (−10.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 November 2026 | 8% | −0.5 pts | −5.0 pts | $3k |
| 30 November 2026 | 21% | +4.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $2k |
| 31 December 2027 | 26% | −1.0 pts | −10.0 pts | $2k |
A price of 26% means traders pay about $0.26 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa832…abf8 | November 15 · No | $2k | +$83 |
| 0xa832…abf8 | November 30 · No | $553 | +$20 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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