As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 24°C at 53%, followed by 23°C at 22% and 25°C at 20%.
26°C moved the most this week: 30% to 4% (−25.9 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24°C | 53% | +7.0 pts | +12.0 pts | $2k |
| 23°C | 22% | −3.5 pts | +6.0 pts | $4k |
| 25°C | 20% | −2.0 pts | −14.0 pts | $2k |
| 26°C | 4% | −1.0 pts | −25.9 pts | $1k |
A price of 53% means traders pay about $0.53 for a “24°C” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 26°C · No | $696 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25°C · No | $574 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 23°C · No | $567 | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.