As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 2.6% at 86%, followed by 2.5% at 11% and 2.7% at 2%.
2.5% moved the most this week: 2% to 11% (+8.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6% | 86% | +1.5 pts | +1.0 pts | $6k |
| 2.5% | 11% | +6.2 pts | +8.1 pts | $1k |
| 2.7% | 2% | −5.3 pts | −6.4 pts | $870 |
A price of 86% means traders pay about $0.86 for a “2.6%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.7% · No | $2k | – |
| 17735977 | 2.6% · Yes | $2k | +$9 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.5% · No | $2k | – |
| .brain. | 2.6% · Yes | $720 | +$51 |
| nj23adsknml3 | 2.6% · Yes | $502 | +$36 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.