As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 0.2% at 47%, followed by 0.3% at 34% and 0.4% at 8%.
0.1% moved the most this week: 10% to 6% (−4.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2% | 47% | −3.0 pts | +1.5 pts | $3k |
| 0.3% | 34% | +3.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $695 |
| 0.4% | 8% | +2.5 pts | +3.5 pts | $817 |
| 0.1% | 6% | −2.5 pts | −4.5 pts | $0 |
| ≤0.0% | 1% | +0.2 pts | −3.6 pts | $501 |
A price of 47% means traders pay about $0.47 for a “0.2%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| QMG-CORE | ≤0.0% · No | $2k | +$8 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | ≤0.0% · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.1% · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.4% · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.3% · No | $760 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 0.2% · No | $610 | – |
| YoungAlphaGoat | 0.2% · Yes | $610 | +$111 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.