As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 5.00-5.49% at 43%, followed by 5.50-5.99% at 31% and 4.50-4.99% at 10%.
5.00-5.49% moved the most this week: 49% to 43% (−5.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00-5.49% | 43% | −4.5 pts | −5.4 pts | $3k |
| 5.50-5.99% | 31% | +3.2 pts | −1.8 pts | $2k |
| 4.50-4.99% | 10% | +1.8 pts | +2.2 pts | $2k |
| 6.00-6.49% | 4% | +1.8 pts | −0.5 pts | $2k |
| 6.50-6.99% | 1% | +0.8 pts | +0.4 pts | $578 |
A price of 43% means traders pay about $0.43 for a “5.00-5.49%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 6.50-6.99% · No | $8k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 6.00-6.49% · No | $8k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 4.50-4.99% · No | $7k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 5.50-5.99% · No | $5k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 5.00-5.49% · No | $5k | – |
| S4uron | 4.50-4.99% · No | $4k | +$672 |
| Musk5 | 5.00-5.49% · Yes | $2k | −$166 |
| S4uron | 5.50-5.99% · Yes | $1k | +$208 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.