As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is S&P 500 at 87%, followed by Gold at 8% and Bitcoin at 6%.
Bitcoin moved the most this week: 14% to 6% (−8.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 87% | −0.5 pts | +5.5 pts | $7k |
| Gold | 8% | −1.1 pts | +3.2 pts | $8k |
| Bitcoin | 6% | +1.0 pts | −8.0 pts | $3k |
A price of 87% means traders pay about $0.87 for a “S&P 500” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Bitcoin · No | $37k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Gold · No | $36k | – |
| tnl | S&P 500 · Yes | $27k | +$15k |
| Smart-bettor7 | S&P 500 · Yes | $8k | +$768 |
| Zptml | S&P 500 · Yes | $6k | +$5k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | S&P 500 · No | $5k | – |
| ghuonliyelkihxeklkgeu | S&P 500 · No | $4k | −$15k |
| Yurion0 | Bitcoin · No | $3k | +$946 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.