As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is No Change at 88%, followed by 25 bps decrease at 6% and 50+ bps decrease at 2%.
No Change moved the most this week: 68% to 88% (+20.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 88% | 0.0 pts | +20.5 pts | $1k |
| 25 bps decrease | 6% | −0.1 pts | −19.4 pts | $2k |
| 50+ bps decrease | 2% | −0.2 pts | −0.2 pts | $425 |
| 25 bps increase | 2% | 0.0 pts | −0.8 pts | $4k |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | −0.1 pts | −1.0 pts | $3k |
A price of 88% means traders pay about $0.88 for a “No Change” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| z13cc | 50+ bps decrease · No | $2k | +$571 |
| charlatta | 25 bps increase · No | $2k | +$9 |
| QMG-CORE | 50+ bps increase · No | $2k | +$10 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No Change · Yes | $2k | +$1k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 50+ bps increase · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25 bps increase · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 50+ bps decrease · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25 bps decrease · No | $2k | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.