As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 1.9 to 2.1% at 52%, followed by 1.6 to 1.8% at 28% and 2.2 to 2.4% at 5%.
1.6 to 1.8% moved the most this week: 50% to 28% (−22.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.9 to 2.1% | 52% | −1.5 pts | +18.0 pts | $5k |
| 1.6 to 1.8% | 28% | −1.5 pts | −22.0 pts | $2k |
| 2.2 to 2.4% | 5% | −0.1 pts | −1.2 pts | $19 |
| 2.5 to 2.7% | 3% | 0.0 pts | −0.7 pts | $224 |
| 1.3 to 1.5% | 3% | −1.0 pts | −0.4 pts | $322 |
A price of 52% means traders pay about $0.52 for a “1.9 to 2.1%” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | 1.9 to 2.1% · No | $2k | −$45 |
| santuxa | 1.9 to 2.1% · Yes | $1k | +$323 |
| newbie77 | 2.2 to 2.4% · No | $760 | +$9 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1.3 to 1.5% · No | $658 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.5 to 2.7% · No | $654 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.2 to 2.4% · No | $642 | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.